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廖仁平: 论世界元信用基础及其管理

2020-03-27 16:04:30  来源:加拿大28开奖官网_加拿大pc28预测_购彩平台
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  提要

  dangjinrenleijingjirongheduyuelaiyuegao,geguozhuyaoguojichubeihuobizhiyidemeiyuanxinyongyaoyaoyuzhuizhishideguojimaoyipoqiexuyaoyizhonggoumailiwendingdejiaoyimeijie。benwenduishijieyuanxiangguanxinyongjichujiqiguanlijinxingsikaotishi,shijieyuandejianlibuxuyaoshijiezhengfu,duliyugeguoyangxingdeshijieyuanyangxingjikefaxingbingguanlishijieyuan,shijieyuandegoumailikeyiyuyiguohuoshuguojinianshengchanlishuipingguagou,shijianzhongzhuyiweihushijieyuanyangxingdulixingjigongkaitoumingxing,shijieyuanzhinengzaishijieyuanyangxingjiecunqiezhuanyongyuguojimaoyidingyuehejiesuanqingsuan,zhuyigeguoxinyongpingjiguanlijiqianquanedupeizhiguanlideng,zeshijieyuanjikeyiweiguojimaoyitigongyizhonglixiangjiaoyimeijieyoubuyingxianggeguohuobizhuquan。

  1世界元定义

加拿大28开奖官网  shijieyuan: goumailixiangduiwendingdeshijietongyonghuobi。

  benwenzhuzhizaiyutantaoyizhonggoumailiwendingkekaoshuliangkediaokekongdeshijietongyonghuobi,houxufenxibiaomingdangjinrenleishehuizhongjiazhizuiwendingdedongxifeishengchanlishuipingmoshu,shengchanlishuipingdejutishujubiaoxianweipingjunlaodongshengchanlv,jingjiwendingfazhandeyiguopingjunlaodongshengchanlvhuoshuguojiaquanpingjunlaodongshengchanlvdoukeyizuoweishijieyuanhuobidejiazhimao,weijianmingji,benwenyiyiguopingjunlaodongshengchanlvpynweishijieyuanhuobijiazhimaojichujinxingxiangguanfenxi。

  2 世界元信用基础简析

  qijin,huobixinyongjichudazhikeguinawei6leibenwei: ①jinyinbenwei;②yilanzishangpinbenwei;③meiyuanbenwei(huangjinbenwei,shiyoubenwei,tanbenwei,baquanbenwei);④ sdrbenwei;⑤chaozhuquanhuobibenwei;⑥shengchanlishuipingbenwei。

  2.1 jinyinbenwei

  huobishibiaoming,jinyinbenweibishiyongshijianyichaoqiannian,danyinjinyinliangbunengmanzuriyizengjiadeshangpinmaoyiliudongxingxuqiu,fabichuxianhoujinyinbenweijiutuichulehuobibenweishi。

  2.2 yilanzishangpinbenwei

  yilanzishangpinbenweishijishangshijinyinbenweidefazhanyuwanshan,ershishijisishiniandai,kaienside“bancor”caiyong30zhongyoudaibiaoxingdeshangpinjiazhijichumaodingguojihuobidanwei,danbingmeiyoubeiguojishehuicaiyong。houlairenmenzaililunshangzuolebuchongyanjiudanyinshijicaozuojiaomafanqieguanlichengbenjiaogaoyemeinengzhenzhengshishi。

  2.3 meiyuanbenwei

  meiyuanguagoudebenweishihuangjinbenwei,shiyoubenwei,tanbenwei,baquanbenwei。huangjinbenweishidezhihuangjinmeiyuanjieduanrenmenxiangxinzhibimeiyuannengduihuandengzhihuangjin,danshishifoudinglezheizhongxinyong,buleidunsenlinhuobitixi1971nianbengkui;shiyoubenweishideshiyoumeiyuanyijingconglilunshangfoudinglemeiyuandezhenshixinyong,daizhiyishiyouzheigezaitiqiangtuimeiyuanbaquan(shiyoujiazhibingbushimeiyuanjiazhimao,shimeiguoqiangquanyaoqiuguojishiyoumaoyizhongdejiesuanbixuyongmeiyuan,cairangrenmenwuyiweimeiyuangoumailibeishiyoujiazhimaodingle,xianshizhongshiyoujiaoyijiesuanyijingbuzaiquanshimeiyuanle,shiyoumeiyuandiweibingbulaogu);jiyutanxinyongedudeneihanjiazhidetanbenweimeiyuantanhuayixianjiubeishijiepaoqi;baquanbenweidemeiyuancaishidangxiameiyuandeshizhi,tayijingbuzaixuyaoshenmeshiwuzaitilesuoyitameiyourenhezhenshikeguanxinyongkeyan,tajiushijiyumeiguoqiangquanxinyongtuixingdeyizhongbaquanhuobi,meiguozaixiangshoubaquanhonglidetongshiyintelifenbeilundekeguancunzaidaozhimeiguo1960nianyilaileijijingwaizhaida11wanyimeiyuanzhiju(jumeiguobopbiao,meiguocong1960~2017nian,jingchangzhanghunichawei11.05wanyimeiyuan,jiezhi2017nian,quanqiuwaihuichubeiheji11.425wanyimeiyuan。genjumeiguoiipbiao,meiguojianjietouzidezhaiwufuzhaiwei11.477wanyimeiyuan,congluojiheshujudoukeyiquerenmeiguoshiyoujingchangzhanghunicha,duiwaishuchumeiyuanzhaichengweiquanqiuchubeihuobi。----maxia: 《renminbiguojihuazhilu》)。11wanyimeiyuanjingzhaiwushimeiguoxiaofeileshijiegeguodangxiameiyuangoumaili11wanyimeiyuanjiazhiliangdezhenshishangpinqianxiade,meiguonengyongdengjiazhiliangshangpinhaiqingma?2020niannianchuxinguanfeiyanyinbaodemeiguogushizai3yuezhongxun(3yue9ri~3yue19ri)4cirongduanzhijiedaozhimeigumeizhaimeiyuandengyaoyaoyuzhui,xuduojixiangbiaomingmeiguozhengzaishuailuo,meiguokenenghennanhaiqingzheibizhaiwu,houmeiyuanshidai,meiguoshuaituibukebimian,meiyuanbaquanzhongjiezhirisiyibuyuan。

  2.4 sdrbenwei

  目前,特别提款权SDR是由美元、欧元、日元、英镑按不同比例构成。其中,美元所占比重最高,达44%,欧元也占到了34%。其价值由以上四种主要货币的加权平均值决定,仅作为“记帐单位”使用。SDR的作用至今没有能够得到充分发挥,但SDR的存在为国际货币体系 改革提供了一线希望。SDR本位实际上是各类信用货币购买力加权后的一种记账单位,在其相关理论和实践方法完善后,有可能演化成为世界元。

  2.5 chaozhuquanhuobibenwei

  2008年世界金融危机后,2009年3月,当时的中国央行行长周小川提出了超主权储备货币的主张“创造一种与主权国家脱钩、并能保持币值长期稳定的国际储备货币,从而避免主权信用货币 作为储备货币的内在缺陷,是国际货币体系改革的理想目标。”,当时人们普遍认为因不存在世界政府,相关理论基础又不完备,加之美国不愿意主动放弃霸权美元,因此,超主权货币的理论研究和实践探索昙花一现后便悄无声息。

加拿大28开奖官网  2.6 shengchanlishuipingbenwei

加拿大28开奖官网  yiguoshengchanlishuipingzonghebiaoxianweipingjunlaodongshengchanlv,suoyishengchanlishuipingbenweijiushipingjunlaodongshengchanlvbenwei。pingjunlaodongshengchanlvbenweibiaozhundanweidetongshishi: pyn( productivity=shengchanlv, year=niandu,nation =guomin),tajiushimouguopingjunmeixiaoshishangpinshengchanlaodongchanchuchanpinyujianada28kaijiangguanwangdebiaozhunjizhangdanwei。1pyndaibiaodejiushimouguozaiyniandulipingjun1xiaoshishangpinshengchanlaodongliyongtedingshengchanlixitongchanchuchanpinyujianada28kaijiangguanwangdezonghejiazhi(chouxiangjiazhi)。ruguogaiguocinianzhongdeshangpinshengchanlaodongzonggongzuoxiaoshishuweinxiaoshi,zeyongpingjunlaodongshengchanlvbenweijizhangdanweibiaoshideshangpinshengchanzongjiazhiliangkejiweinpyn,angdpdeshengchanfadingyikezhi:

  npyn=gdp

  jiangzheigedengshishaozuoshuxuebianhuanjiunengdedaopynjiazhichidudengshi:

  1pyn=gdp/n

  tayiweizhemouguoguominmenpingjunmeixiaoshishangpinshengchanlaodongliyongtedingshengchanlixitongchanchushangpinchouxiangjiazhiliangdedangqishichanghuobijiageshidangnianmingyigdpde1/n。

加拿大28开奖官网  zheigejiandanzhiguandeshishizhenghaoshuominglepyndechouxiangjiazhicaifuyushishizaizaidexianjincaifujiandeduihuanfeichangjiandangongping(xiangduijiyuyilanzishangpindehuobimao,pynjiyutongjiyiyishangyiguonianduchanchuquanbushangpinjiazhizongliangerjisuan,pyngengquanmiangengkexueyinciyegengwendingkekao),chanpinyujianada28kaijiangguanwangdechouxiangjiazhiyushichangjiagejiandandimaodingzaiyiqile,yinci,jiyujiniandepynkeyichengweihuobidejiazhibenwei。

  angesi·maidisenhongguanzonglanshijiejingjiqiannianshideyanjiubiaoming,xiangduirenleishijiesuoyoushiwucaichanhuoxinyong,pingjunlaodongshengchanlvbenweizhipynjiazhibiaozhunzuiwendingkekao。“zaijianada28kaijiangguanwangjiyuandediergeqiannian,shijiejingjidebiaoxiandadachaoguoletadediyigeqiannian。cong1000~1998nian,zairenkouzengjiale22beidetongshi,renjunshouruzengjiale13bei。erzaidiyigeqiannian,zairenkouzengzhangleliufenzhiyidetongshi,renjunshouruqueyousuoxiajiang。…diergeqiannianbaokuolelianggexianzhubutongdeshiqi,1000~1820nianjian,renjunshouruhuanmanpasheng,congquanshijielaikan,dayuetishengle50%,zheigeshiqidezengzhangzaihendachengdushangkanjuyou“cufang”tezheng,yizhichigaishiqisibeiderenkouzengzhang。er1820nianyilaideshijiejingjifazhanchengxianchuqiangjingshitou,gengjuyou“jiyue”detezheng,zheigeshiqiderenjunzengzhangchaoguolerenkoudezengzhang,dao1998nianshitayijingxiangdangyu1820nianshuipingde8.5bei,tongqi,shijierenkouzengzhangle5.6bei…1870~1998nianjian,xiou12guojingjifazhanhenkuai,meigongzuoxiaoshichuangzaodegdpdezengzhanglvzai1.5%~4.7%zhijian…”(shijiejingjiqiannianshi/[ying]angesi·maidisen(angus maddisom)zhu;wuxiaoyingdengyi。-beijing: beijingdaxuechubanshe,2003,11 )

加拿大28开奖官网  angesi·maidisendeyanjiubiaoming,shijiegeguodepingjunlaodongshengchanlvyibandoushisuizheshijiantuiyierhuanmanzengzhangde(diyigeyiqiannianzhongjihumeiyouzengzhang,diergeqiannianzhongde1000~1998nian,renjunshouruzeng13bei,fuhenianzenglvyuewei0.2573%,ji1.002573998=13),zhiyou1870~1998nianjiandexiou12guodepingjunlaodongshengchanlvzengzhangzuikuai,fuhenianzenglvzai1.5%~4.7%zhijian…

加拿大28开奖官网  guojiatongjijuxiangguanshujubiaoming,1996~2015nianjian,shijiepingjunlaodongshengchanlvnianjunfuhezengzhanglvwei1.3%(meiguo1.6%,ouyuanqu0.7%,riben 0.9%,yindu5.3%,zhongguo8.6%)。

  cibiaomingpingjunlaodongshengchanlvshirenleishehuizhongjiazhizuiwendingdebiaodewu。

  ruoyizhongguo2015nianweijinian,zezhongguodepynkebiaodaweip2015china,kejianjiweip15chi,jiading1p15chidayuedengyu25yuanrenminbi(guojiatongjijushujubiaoming,yi2005nianweijinian,zhongguo2015nianrenjunlaodongshengchanlvwei7318meiyuan,yuehe50000yuanrenminbi,jiadingzhongguodelaodongzhezhoujungongzuo40xiaoshinianjungongzuowei2000xiaoshi,zemeixiaoshilaodongchanchujiazhiyuewei25yuanrenminbi),ruochaozhuquanhuobizhishijieyuandegoumailiyoucibiaoding,keyiyou

  1shijieyuan=1p15chi=jinian2015nianshide25yuanrenminbi。

  yibanrenbuxuyaozhenmingbai1shijieyuandegoumailiweishenmeyu2015nianshizhongguorenminbi25yuandegoumailixiangdeng,zhijieyongjiushileqiebuyongdanxinshijieyuangoumailihuibianzhi,yinwei1shijieyuandegoumailiyijingyouxiangguanjigou(shijieyuanyangxinghuoimf)yu2015nianshizhongguorenminbi25yuandegoumailiguashanglegou;2015nianshizhongguorenminbi25yuandegoumailinenggougoumaideshangpinjiazhiliangjiushi2015nianzhongguojingjizhong1p15chidezhenshijiazhiliang,jishijianglairenminbidegoumailihuidongtaibianhua,danzhongguojingjizhongdepynzhihuishenggaobuhuijiangdi,shijieyuanguagouyuzhongguojingjizhongdep15chi(yekeguagouyuqitafadajingjitidepynhuoshugefadajingjitidejiaquanpingjunpyn),yongyuanbucunzaigoumailibianzhidewenti。

  3 世界元体系的建立与管理

  3.1 shijieyuantixidejianli

  zhongguokelvxianchangyichenglishijieyuanyangxing(yekeyizengjiaimfgongneng,zhijiezaiimfzhongqianrushijieyuantixi),guangfanxinashijiegeguojinrongzhuanjiazuchengshijieyuanyangxingguanliweiyuanhui,minzhuxieshangzhidingxiangguanguizhangzhidubingguanlishijieyuanyangxing。

  3.2 shijieyuantixideguanli

加拿大28开奖官网  shijieyuangoumailiyip15chiweijiazhimao,jiyou:

加拿大28开奖官网  1shijieyuan=1p15chi=jinian2015nianshide25yuanrenminbi

加拿大28开奖官网  geshijieyuanjiedaiguoyizishenguoliweiqisuojiedaishijieyuanxinyongbeishu,shijieyuanyangxingzhiduxingcujinguojimaoyipingheng。

  qianghuashijieyuanjiazhifuhaohejiaoyimeijiegongneng,danhuashijieyuandejiazhichuzanggongnengdeng;shijieyuanyangxingduliyurenhezhuquanguojiayangxing;gemaoyiguosuoxuqiushijieyuanshuliangyuqiguolixinyongguagou,jishijieyuanshiyongguoyongzishendeguojiaxinyongweiqisuojiedaideshijieyuanxinyongbeishu。

  shijieyuandegoumailijiyup15chi,bingbuyiweizhezhongguoyaoweishijieyuandexinyongbeishu,tajiushiyigechuncuieryoukeguandejiazhibiaozhun,zheigebiaozhunyouzhenshikekaodeshiwushangpinjiazhiliangzuoweijichu(butongniandudepychijiankeyitongyue),renheguojiakeyijucikeguanbiaozhunjiazhiliangzuoweiguojimaoyizhongdingyuehuojiesuanqingsuanjichu。

加拿大28开奖官网  shijieyuanyangxingjiyuqukuailianjishukaifadianziguanlixitong,genjuguojimaoyixuyaofaxingshuzishijieyuan;geguoshenqingzhucechengweishuzishijieyuanhuobijiecundechengyuanguo;shijieyuanyangxingkesuishiangeguomaoyiliangdaxiaoxuyaojiqixinyongdengjipeizhishuzishijieyuanhuobi,shuzishijieyuanzhinengzaishijieyuanyangxingwuxijiecun,shijieyuanyangxingshouqushijieyuanjiecunguanlifeiweichirichangkaizhibuyiyingliweimude;shuzishijieyuanzhinengyongyuguojimaoyidingyuehuojiesuanqingsuan,geguoguoneirengliutonggeguobenbi,shijieyuanyangxingdongtaijichushuzishijieyuanyugeguobenbijiandehuilvzhidaogeguobenbihuhuanliyuguojiliudongrenyuanliudongshihuobiduanqisuoxu(shijieyuanyugeguobenbigongcun,geyougedeyongchugeyougedeguanlixitong),shijieyuanyangxingyugeguoyangxingduli。

  shijieyuanyangxingtuidongbingweihuguojimaoyipingheng,jieqianshiguanlifeishaoshoushenzhimianshou,cunqianshiguanlifeiduoshouqieleijinzhiduoshou,shunchaechaoguoyidingxianduhouyaochengfaxingshouquguanlifei,cichengfaxingguanlifeizhuanmenzhanghuguanlibuyongyushijieyuanyangxingeryongyuguojidaoyirufupindengkaizhi;nichaguonichadadaoqixinyonganquanbianjishi,buzaijiejishuzishijieyuan,poshiqishefaduiwaiduochukoumibunichaquekouhuoanyueqingsuan…

  zhichishijieyuanyangxingdeguojiaanxiangguanguidingtuijianbenguojinrongzhuanjiacanxuanshijieyuanyangxingguanliweiyuanhuiweiyuan,shijieyuanyangxingguanliweiyuanhuichengyuanyaoyoudaibiaoxinghepubianxing,weiyuanhuisuozuogexiangguanlijuedingjiqijieguodengjunxugongkaijieshouquanshijiejiandu。

  4 美元体系与世界元体系信用背书主体对比分析

  meiyuantixizhimeiyuanxinyongyoumeiguoguolihuobaquanbeishu,shijieyuantixidexinyongyoushiyongshijieyuanguojiadeguolibeishu。huanjuhuashuo,meiyuantixishi“meiguodemeiyuanmeiguodexinyong”,shijieyuantixishi“shijiedeshijieyuanshiyongguodexinyong”。shijieyuantixizhong,shijieyuanyangxingzhibaozhangshijieyuandegoumailiwendingbinggenjuguojimaoyixuyaofaxingshuzishijieyuan,bingjiyucujinguojimaoyipinghengyuanzezhidingxiangguanguanliguiding,buchengdanshijieyuanbenshendexinyongdanbao;shijieyuanbenshendexinyongyoujieyongshijieyuanguojiadeguolihuoxiangyingshiwuruyiguokuangshantudigangkoudengzuoweixinyongbeishubiaodewu…yinpinghengmaoyiguizeyueshuxiageguoweiguojimaoyiliudongxingzhixusuojieshijieyuanbukenengtaiduo,qiguojiaxinyonghuoxiangyingshiwudengdouzuyichengdanqixinyongdanbao,yinci,shijieyuandexinyongyuanbimeiyuandengxiancungeleiguojichubeihuobidexinyonghao。

  xianxingguojichubeihuobitixizhong,quanshijiechubeidemeiyuanliangxiangaoda6.75wanyimeiyuan,meiguoyaoweizhei6.75wanyimeiyuanxinyongfuquanze,dangmeiguoshuailuomeiyuanzouruohou,guojichubeihuobitixiyoubengkuifengxian(jiezhidao2019nian9yuedi,quanqiu10.93wanyiwaihuichubeizhongmeiyuanjiudadaole6.75wanyi,yueweiquanqiuwaichuzongliangde61.78%--zheiyiweizhemeiyuanrengshiguojixinghuobi)

  5 后美元时代世界元呼之欲出

加拿大28开奖官网  dangxiameiguo,duoniantuoshixiangxujingjiyijingtaokonglemeiguo,jincundejungongfuhetichanye,nengyuanye,nongyeheyixiegaokejichanyedengdeshouruyuanbuzuyiweiyangmeiguoxunijingji,bujin11wanyimeiyuanguojiajuejingwaizhaichanghaiyaoyaowuqi,meiguozhengfuchiziyezhuniandizengda23wanyimeiyuan…meiguoshuailuoyijingbukebimian,meiyuanbengkuituichuguojichubeihuobitixiyijingweiqibuyuan,jieshiguojichubeihuobijiangchansheng61.78%quekou(6.75wanyimeiyuan),dangjinshijiemeiyourenhezhuquanhuobikenengzaiduanqineitianbuzheigejudadequekou!yinweizheiyiweizhequekoutianbuguojiangzaiduanqineichengdanxianshimeiyuangoumaili6.75wanyimeiyuandenichayalishuchuxiangyinghuobigongshijiegeguochubeisuoxu,xianran,renminbibukeneng!ouyuanriyuanyingbangdengyejuemeiyouzheizhongkeneng!

  shijieyuanhuzhiyuchu!

  6 超主权货币理论研究与实践简介

  chaozhuquanhuobiyanjiuwenxianjiaoduo,cijinjianjie2009nian3yuezhouxiaochuantichujianlichaozhuquanchubeihuobidechangyiyilaixiangguanneirong。

加拿大28开奖官网  zhouxiaochuanzhuzhangfazhansdrqianlitidaimeiyuan,zheizhongchaozhuquanchubeihuobidejiazhimaoshiduoguofabixinyongjiaquanhoudepingjunxinyong,tadewendingxingjiqujueyuzheixieguojiafabineizaigoumailidewending,youqujueyuxiediaozheixieguojiadeguanlinengli。

加拿大28开奖官网  “zhongguojinrongsishirenluntan”xiangyingzhouxiaochuanchangyifaqileyilunchaozhuquanhuobililuntantao,wujinglian,linyifu,sunlijian,dingzhijiedengfenfenfayanjiance,jibengongshishi“huobihongweilantu,jiannanboyidaolu”,qiangdiaolejianlichaozhuquanchubeihuobidezhongyaoyubiyao,danbingmeiduoshaoshizhixingcelve。jicizhihou,zhongguoxueshujieluxuyoulingxingyanjiu,zaimeiyouzhongdatuposhirenminbiguojihuayanjiuriyizengduo,jibengongshishi“guojichubeihuobiduoyuanhuashiyigebijiaoxianshidelujingxuanze”。

加拿大28开奖官网  tanhuobi: zaiditanpaifangchengweiquanqiujingjizengzhangdebianjieyuedingshi,tanxinyongeduneihanjiazhi riyituxian,tanjiaoyiyiduchengweishijiedazongshangpinjiaoyizhiyi,tanjiaoyibiaodedebiaojiahuobi bangdingquanyijiyouciyanshengchulaidehuobizhinengduidapodanbianmeiyuanbaquancushiguojihuobigejuduoyuanhuachanshengleyidingyingxiang…dantanxinyongedu neihanjiazhi benshenshifenmohupiaohu,tanhuobimeiduojiujiuxiaoshengnijile。

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  7 结 语

  jiazhibiaozhunwendingkekaoshuliangkediaokekongdetongyonghuobizuoweichaozhuquanhuobi,shidangjinguojimaoyizuilixiangdejiaoyimeijie,qichaozhuquanxingkeyixiaochuchuantongguojichubeihuobimeiyuanouyuanriyuanyingbanghuorenminbidengzhuquanhuobiyibiliangyong(jishiyiguobenbiyoushiguojijiaoyimeijie)dezhuduobiduan。benwentichangdeshijieyuan,qijiazhichiduzhiyuyiwendingjingjitizhongzuiwendingkekaozhipynguagouqieshuliangkediaokekong,shijieyuanyangxingzhibaozhangshijieyuanjiazhiwendingketongyuebuxuyaoweishijieyuandexinyongtigongdanbao,shijieyuandexinyongyouqijieyongguoguolibeishu,cijuedingleshijieyuandexinyongyuanbixiancunsuoyouguojichubeihuobidexinyongdouyaohao。shijieyuanshiyongguosuishikeyixiangshijieyuanyangxingjiecunshijieyuan,telifennantiziranxiaoshi。shijieyuanyangxingyugeguoyangxingduli,shijieyuanzhinengzaishijieyuanyangxingjiecunqiezhuanyongyuguojimaoyidingyuehejiesuanqingsuan,yugezhuquanhuobixiangduidulidankehuxiangdongtaigongpingduihuan,cijuedingleshijieyuanjikeyiweiguojimaoyitigonglixiangjiaoyimeijieyoubuyingxianggeguohuobizhuquan…

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